US debt default unlikely, downgrade likely

Įžvalgos / 2011-07-28

Vakar Danske Markets išleido labai gerą esamos situacijos Jungtinėse Amerikos Valstijose analizę: "US debt default unlikely, downgrade likely". Konkrečiai buvo svarstoma, kokie yra galimi scenarijai, susiję su JAV skolos limito pakėlimu, ar yra tikėtinas tarkime sisteminis JAV bankrotas, o gal reikėtų tikėtis tik JAV ilgalaikio skolinimosi reitingo sumažinimo? Yra labai aiškiai pateikiami 3 scenarijai (pagrindinis, optimistinis ir pesimistinis), bei kaip kiekvienu iš jų galėtų elgtis palūkanų normos, akcijų kainos bei valiutų kursai. Žemiau pateikiamos šios analizės išvadas, tačiau primygtinai siūlau persiskaityti viską nuo pradžių iki pabaigos (visa analizė pateikiama pačioje apačioje):

1] The timeline for meeting the 2 August deadline is very tight and the likelihood of getting a so-called “grand bargain” with substantial savings is now very low.

2] Although we do not expect the stalemate to result in a temporary default, we now see a more than 50% chance that US sovereign debt will be downgraded by the rating agencies in the coming months.

3] The deadline of 2 August may be postponed, as there seems to have been higher tax payments in July than expected. Hence, if no agreement is reached by 2 August we might see negotiations continue for a week or so.

4] In our main scenario (no default but downgrade) we believe equities will correct by -5%, Bond yields would show a limited positive reaction and the US dollar would weaken slightly. This scenario is close to the market consensus.

5] However, there is a negative scenario (debt limit not raised in time) under which stocks would correct -10% (S&P500), bond yields would rise 50bp (10 year T-note) and the US dollar would start to strengthen against cyclical currencies but still weaken against the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the euro.

6] The systemic risks connected with a downgrade of US government debt are very difficult to assess. While the conventional wisdom is currently that the impact will be moderate, there is no preceding experience with a downgrade of the numéraire of the global financial system. The latter is a key point in our assessment of a nervous reaction in risk assets when a downgrade, as we expect, becomes reality.

Danske Markets - US Debt Default Unlikely 20110727